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Central Nova - Elizabeth May

Our leader is inspiring. The news reports indicate that she is going to take on the Conservatives "Big Kahuna" in Nova Scotia....Peter MacKay.

Elizabeth will her EARN her seat in Parliament.

A lesson for the Liberals. The Liberals won't take back government when their big name new recruits won't even run in Conservative held ridings - Bob Ray, Gerhard Kennedy, Martha Hall Findlay, Justin Trudeau...

Our Party will play the role of David in the next election - most assuredly Conservatives will fall to Greens in Alberta and a front-bench Cabinet Minister is going down in Central Nova. 65% of the Canadian electorate is not happy with the Harper Conservatives. Voters will see that the Greens are serious about taking Harper out of power.

The saying "Go Big or Go Home" needs slight modification as Elizabeth heads back to her home Province - for her it is "Go Home and Go Big".

Soumis par John Knight le 18 mars 2007 - 9:20am.

In one of the last federal

In one of the last federal elections in which Ed Broadbent led the NDP, he commented publicly that the NDP would gain enough seats to become the official opposition. He was dreaming very optimistically. The NDP didn't do nearly as well as he predicted; they certainly didn't become the official opposition. In my opinion, Elizabeth May and many Greens are falling into the same trap: they are counting their chickens before they've hatched, just as Broadbent did. The difference is that the NDP did have seats in the Commons, whereas we have none. We should be brutally frank with ourselves and as pragmatic as possible. I merely HOPE we will elect Greens. No cabinet minister appears to be "shaking his boots" from the Green "threat," certainly not Peter MacKay. And what does Elizabeth mean by, "Peter Mackay is no Allan J. MacEachen"? (I want to know what SHE means, not what other Greens think she means.)

Furthermore, I think that while it's perfectly okay for Elizabeth to run somewhere in Nova Scotia, it's a mistake to try unseat a cabinet minister at this time when we have no seats in the Commons.

Hoping for some electoral success,

Manuel Erickson

Central Nova inspired choice - hers bigger than Colbert's

Answering your two points:

1) We are not counting our chickens before they hatch. I don't think any Greens are quitting their day jobs in anticipation of a nice MP's salary. Being confident during elections is not a trap; being 'pragmatic' at the cusp of a possible tipping point is often exactly the wrong approach, in hindsight. It won't hurt us to run to win in as many ridings as possible. Setting some kind of 'realistic' ceiling for ourselves just limits our potential success. Remember the borrowed money Jim Harris risked in 2004 on the gamble that we'd break 2%? If he'd played it safe like some suggested based on past performance, we wouldn't have gotten 308 and probably not even the 2%. Prophecies, both good or bad, tend to be self-fulfilling - so let's make good ones.

2) Running in Central Nova

- There is no 'safe' Green seat. There are no Canadian seats currently considered (by the pundits) 'winnable' for a Green. Therefore, there is no 'ideal' riding for Elizabeth to run in. If she wins a seat, it will be unprecedented and because of her candidacy, not because of the prior conditions there. She got 26% in London where Greens had previously gotten 5% by taking 5% each from Lib and Cons and 10% from NDP. This was against a strong Liberal candidate in a Liberal riding, beating out strong Conservative and NDP candidates where most predicted she would come in fourth, not second. She didn't pick a winnable riding - she almost unseated a 'safe' Liberal.

- She prefers to unseat a Conservative to prevent a Harper majority and for symbolic reasons, so she won't run against an incumbent of another party. Running against MacKay is a clear dropping of the gauntlet. Her two most 'homey' ridings (Cape Breton) are both 50%+ Liberal ridings.

- Central Nova is not necessarily so 'strong' for the Conservatives. MacKay only got 40%, whereas the NDP came in second with 33% - indicating a good chance to come up the middle between 'left' and 'right'. (With the Liberals at 25% and holding it before MacKay, it was a 3-way race, our best kind of riding). Maritime Tories are not so happy with "Canada's New Government" and may now realize that voting Conservative is not the same as voting Tory. If the Liberals keep their own campaign low-key (if Dion sincerely wants her in the House), you may be surprised. If she takes 5-10% each from the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP in that riding just as she did in LNC, she is in reach of winning the seat.

- Running against Joe-nobody Conservative incumbent, or worse, Jane-nobody Liberal or NDP, would send the wrong message - that our leader can't take on a fight. Also, she would be the carpetbagger against the local hero. Against MacKay, she is national star vs. national star - more of a fair fight. That means she'll get more national coverage, which helps us all. And just as she'll be busy in other ridings most of the election, so will he - deputy leader and foreign minister is a big gun the Cons will be pulling to visit swing ridings all over Canada, leaving CN open. In another riding, an absentee Elizabeth would be up against a full-time local.

Having looked at it from several angles, I believe CN was a good choice. You get 'em, EfM!

Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
Barrie, ON

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